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EST Estonia Meistriliiga · Round 22 ·

JK Trans Narva vs JK Nomme Kalju

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–22.39 expected goals
Away form
Home win16%
Draw27%
Away win57%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win57% selection probability
Projected score1–2JK Trans NarvaJK Nomme Kalju
Expected goals2.39Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under57% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo64% for the selected side
Expected corners10.8Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
16% / 27% / 57%Match resultAway win57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes JK Trans Narva win (16.1%)Double chanceX283.9%1.19
Over 43% · Under 57%Goals 2.5Under57%1.75
Yes 36% · No 64%Both teams scoreNo64%1.56
2.39 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
10.8 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
JK Trans Narva win16%6.25
Draw27%3.70
JK Nomme Kalju win57%1.75

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

JK Trans Narva0.56

Home share of expected goals 23.4%

Total expected goals2.39Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 43% · Under 57%

JK Nomme Kalju1.83

Away share of expected goals 76.6%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 36% · No 64%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

JK Trans Narva

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

JK Nomme Kalju

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Points9

SignalHome failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
16%
Win probability excluding draw
57%
6
Points from supplied form
9
0.56
Expected goals
1.83
JK Trans NarvaJK Nomme Kalju
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01JK Trans Narva signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02JK Nomme Kalju signalHome failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

JK Trans Narva vs JK Nomme Kalju FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

JK Trans Narva win 16%,Draw 27%,JK Nomme Kalju win 57%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.39 · Over 2.5 43% · Current selection Under