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BGR Bulgaria First League · Fixture ·

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–23.13 expected goals
Away form
Home win27%
Draw26%
Away win47%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 47% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win47% selection probability
Projected score1–2Lokomotiv 1929 SofiaCSKA 1948 Sofia
Expected goals3.13Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over60% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes60% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
27% / 26% / 47%Match resultAway win47%2.13
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.3%)Double chance1273.7%1.36
Over 60% · Under 40%Goals 2.5Over60%1.67
Yes 60% · No 40%Both teams scoreYes60%1.67
3.13 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
9.3 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia win27%3.70
Draw26%3.85
CSKA 1948 Sofia win47%2.13

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia1.22

Home share of expected goals 39%

Total expected goals3.13Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 60% · Under 40%

CSKA 1948 Sofia1.91

Away share of expected goals 61%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 60% · No 40%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

CSKA 1948 Sofia

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalAway unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
27%
Win probability excluding draw
47%
5
Points from supplied form
10
1.22
Expected goals
1.91
Lokomotiv 1929 SofiaCSKA 1948 Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02CSKA 1948 Sofia signalAway unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk53% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 47% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia win 27%,Draw 26%,CSKA 1948 Sofia win 47%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.13 · Over 2.5 60% · Current selection Over