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EST Estland - Meistriliiga · Round 21 ·

JK Narva Trans vs JK Nomme Kalju

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–22.42 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr16%
Uafgjort26%
Udesejr58%
Full model forecastUdesejrTier A · 58% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callUdesejr58% selection probability
Projected score1–2JK Narva TransJK Nomme Kalju
Expected goals2.42Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under57% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej63% for the selected side
Expected corners10.8Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
16% / 26% / 58%KampresultatUdesejr58%1.72
Derived from 1X2 · excludes JK Narva Trans win (16%)DobbeltchanceX284%1.19
Over 43% · Under 57%Goals 2.5Under57%1.75
Ja 37% · Nej 63%Begge hold scorerNej63%1.59
2.42 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–2
10.8 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
JK Narva Trans win16%6.25
Uafgjort26%3.85
JK Nomme Kalju win58%1.72

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

JK Narva Trans0.57

Hjemme share of expected goals 23.6%

Total expected goals2.42Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 43% · Under 57%

JK Nomme Kalju1.85

Ude share of expected goals 76.4%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitJa 37% · Nej 63%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

JK Narva Trans

1.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Point6

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

Ude-context · form sequence

JK Nomme Kalju

1.80pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Point9

SignalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
16%
Vundet probability excluding draw
58%
6
Points from supplied form
9
0.57
Expected goals
1.85
JK Narva TransJK Nomme Kalju
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01JK Narva Trans signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02JK Nomme Kalju signalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk42% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

JK Narva Trans vs JK Nomme Kalju FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Udesejr · Projected score 1–2 · 58% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

JK Narva Trans vundet 16%,Uafgjort 26%,JK Nomme Kalju vundet 58%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.42 · Over 2.5 43% · Current selection Under