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EST Estonia Meistriliiga · Round 21 ·

FC Kuressaare vs Harju JK Laagri

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.47 expected goals
Away form
Home win37%
Draw26%
Away win37%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win37% selection probability
Projected score1–1FC KuressaareHarju JK Laagri
Expected goals2.47Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under55% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes50% for the selected side
Expected corners10.9Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
37% / 26% / 37%Match resultAway win37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.3%)Double chance1273.7%1.36
Over 45% · Under 55%Goals 2.5Under55%1.82
Yes 50% · No 50%Both teams scoreYes50%2.00
2.47 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
10.9 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin12.2%Largest probability gapHarju JK Laagri winDifference+0.6 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FC Kuressaare win37%2.702.3837.4%-0.4 pp
Draw26%3.853.4026.2%-0.2 pp
Harju JK Laagri win37%2.702.4536.4%+0.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Kuressaare1.08

Home share of expected goals 43.7%

Total expected goals2.47Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 45% · Under 55%

Harju JK Laagri1.39

Away share of expected goals 56.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 50% · No 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

FC Kuressaare

0.20pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Points1

SignalHome failed to score: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Harju JK Laagri

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalAway matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
37%
Win probability excluding draw
37%
1
Points from supplied form
6
1.08
Expected goals
1.39
FC KuressaareHarju JK Laagri
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Kuressaare signalHome failed to score: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Harju JK Laagri signalAway matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

FC Kuressaare vs Harju JK Laagri FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Kuressaare win 37%,Draw 26%,Harju JK Laagri win 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.47 · Over 2.5 45% · Current selection Under