Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
37% / 29% / 34%Match resultHome win37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.5%)Double chance1270.5%1.42
Over 46% · Under 54%Goals 2.5Under54%1.85
Yes 51% · No 49%Both teams scoreYes51%1.96
2.51 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1——
10.3 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5——
Probability view
Forecast probabilities and fair odds
No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.
OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Vila Nova win37%2.70
Draw29%3.45
Sport Recife win34%2.94
Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 52.2%
Total expected goals2.51Balanced
Dedicated goals model: Over 46% · Under 54%
Away share of expected goals 47.8%
Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 51% · No 49%Match profileBalanced
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
1.20pts / matchVila Nova
LWLLW
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6
SignalHome failed to score: 3/5
Away-context · form sequence
0.80pts / matchSport Recife
DDDDL
Played5Wins0Drawn4Losses1Points4
SignalAway unbeaten 4/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
37%
Win probability excluding draw
34%6
Points from supplied form
41.31
Expected goals
1.20Vila NovaSport Recife
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 29%.
Match questions
Vila Nova vs Sport Recife FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Vila Nova win 37%，Draw 29%，Sport Recife win 34%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.51 · Over 2.5 46% · Current selection Under。