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BRA Brazil Serie B · Round 21 ·

Vila Nova vs Sport Recife

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domácí form
Projected score1–12.49 expected goals
Hosté form
Výhra domácích37%
Remíza30%
Výhra hostů34%
Full model forecastVýhra domácíchTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVýhra domácích37% selection probability
Projected score1–1Vila NovaSport Recife
Expected goals2.49Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Méně54% for the selected side
Oba týmy skórujíAno51% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Více 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketVýběrPravděpodobnostFérový kurz
37% / 30% / 34%Výsledek zápasuVýhra domácích37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.5%)Dvojitá šance1270.5%1.42
Více 46% · Méně 54%Goals 2.5Méně54%1.85
Ano 51% · Ne 49%Oba týmy skórujíAno51%1.96
2.49 total expected goalsPřesné skóre1–1
10.3 expected match cornersRohyVíce 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Ne snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFérový kurz
Vila Nova win37%2.70
Remíza30%3.33
Sport Recife win34%2.94

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Vila Nova1.29

Domácí share of expected goals 51.8%

Total expected goals2.49Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Více 46% · Méně 54%

Sport Recife1.20

Hosté share of expected goals 48.2%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitAno 51% · Ne 49%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domácí-context · form sequence

Vila Nova

1.20pts / match
Odehráno5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Body6

SignalDomácí failed to score: 3/5

Hosté-context · form sequence

Sport Recife

0.80pts / match
Odehráno5Wins0Drawn4Losses1Body4

SignalHosté unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
37%
Výhra probability excluding draw
34%
6
Points from supplied form
4
1.29
Expected goals
1.20
Vila NovaSport Recife
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Vila Nova signalDomácí failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sport Recife signalHosté unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remíza probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Vila Nova vs Sport Recife FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Výhra domácích · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Vila Nova výhra 37%,Remíza 30%,Sport Recife výhra 34%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.49 · Více 2.5 46% · Current selection Méně