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BRA Brazil Serie B · Round 20 ·

Vila Nova vs Sport Recife

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Mandante form
Projected score1–12.51 expected goals
Visitante form
Vitória da casa42%
Empate30%
Vitória visitante28%
Full model forecastVitória da casaTier A · 42% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVitória da casa42% selection probability
Projected score1–1Vila NovaSport Recife
Expected goals2.51Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Abaixo54% for the selected side
Ambas as equipes marcamSim51% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Acima 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeleçãoProbabilidadeOdds justas
42% / 30% / 28%Resultado da partidaVitória da casa42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Sport Recife win (28.2%)Dupla Chance1X71.8%1.39
Acima 46% · Abaixo 54%Goals 2.5Abaixo54%1.85
Sim 51% · Não 49%Ambas as equipes marcamSim51%1.96
2.51 total expected goalsPlacar exato1–1
10.3 expected match cornersEscanteiosAcima 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.1%Largest probability gapDrawDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePrevisãoOdds justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Vila Nova win42%2.382.2541.9%+0.1 pp
Empate30%3.333.1030.4%-0.4 pp
Sport Recife win28%3.573.4027.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Vila Nova1.31

Mandante share of expected goals 52.2%

Total expected goals2.51Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Acima 46% · Abaixo 54%

Sport Recife1.20

Visitante share of expected goals 47.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitSim 51% · Não 49%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Mandante-context · form sequence

Vila Nova

1.20pts / match
Jogos5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Pontos6

SignalMandante failed to score: 3/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Sport Recife

0.80pts / match
Jogos5Wins0Drawn4Losses1Pontos4

SignalVisitante unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
42%
Ganhou probability excluding draw
28%
6
Points from supplied form
4
1.31
Expected goals
1.20
Vila NovaSport Recife
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Vila Nova signalMandante failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sport Recife signalVisitante unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Vila Nova vs Sport Recife FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vitória da casa · Projected score 1–1 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Vila Nova ganhou 42%,Empate 30%,Sport Recife ganhou 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.51 · Acima 2.5 46% · Current selection Abaixo