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BRA Brazil Serie B · Round 21 ·

Vila Nova vs Sport Recife

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.50 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier37%
Uavgjort29%
Borteseier34%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier37% selection probability
Projected score1–1Vila NovaSport Recife
Expected goals2.50Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under54% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa51% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
37% / 29% / 34%KampresultatHjemmeseier37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.5%)Dobbel sjanse1270.5%1.42
Over 46% · Under 54%Goals 2.5Under54%1.85
Ja 51% · Nei 49%Begge lag scorerJa51%1.96
2.50 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
10.3 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRettferdig odds
Vila Nova win37%2.70
Uavgjort29%3.45
Sport Recife win34%2.94

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Vila Nova1.30

Hjemme share of expected goals 52%

Total expected goals2.50Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 46% · Under 54%

Sport Recife1.20

Borte share of expected goals 48%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 51% · Nei 49%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Vila Nova

1.20pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poeng6

SignalHjemme failed to score: 3/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Sport Recife

0.80pts / match
Spilt5Wins0Drawn4Losses1Poeng4

SignalBorte unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
37%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
34%
6
Points from supplied form
4
1.30
Expected goals
1.20
Vila NovaSport Recife
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Vila Nova signalHjemme failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sport Recife signalBorte unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Vila Nova vs Sport Recife FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Vila Nova vunnet 37%,Uavgjort 29%,Sport Recife vunnet 34%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.50 · Over 2.5 46% · Current selection Under