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LVA Latvia 1. Liga · Round 15 ·

Marupes SC vs Leevon PPK

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–23.10 expected goals
Away form
Home win26%
Draw23%
Away win52%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win52% selection probability
Projected score1–2Marupes SCLeevon PPK
Expected goals3.10Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over60% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes62% for the selected side
Expected corners11.1Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
26% / 23% / 52%Match resultAway win52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (22.6%)Double chance1277.4%1.29
Over 60% · Under 40%Goals 2.5Over60%1.67
Yes 62% · No 38%Both teams scoreYes62%1.61
3.10 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
11.1 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.6%Largest probability gapMarupes SC winDifference+1.1 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Marupes SC win26%3.853.6024.9%+1.1 pp
Draw23%4.354.0022.4%+0.6 pp
Leevon PPK win52%1.921.7052.7%-0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Marupes SC1.49

Home share of expected goals 48.1%

Total expected goals3.10Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 60% · Under 40%

Leevon PPK1.61

Away share of expected goals 51.9%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 62% · No 38%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Marupes SC

0.60pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Points3

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Leevon PPK

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalHome failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
26%
Win probability excluding draw
52%
3
Points from supplied form
9
1.49
Expected goals
1.61
Marupes SCLeevon PPK
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Marupes SC signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Leevon PPK signalHome failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Marupes SC vs Leevon PPK FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Marupes SC win 26%,Draw 23%,Leevon PPK win 52%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.10 · Over 2.5 60% · Current selection Over