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LVA Latvia 1. Liga · Round 15 ·

JFK Ventspils vs SK Super Nova II

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.19 expected goals
Away form
Home win37%
Draw25%
Away win38%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win38% selection probability
Projected score1–1JFK VentspilsSK Super Nova II
Expected goals2.19Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under63% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo55% for the selected side
Expected corners11.9Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
37% / 25% / 38%Match resultAway win38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.2%)Double chance1274.8%1.34
Over 37% · Under 63%Goals 2.5Under63%1.59
Yes 45% · No 55%Both teams scoreNo55%1.82
2.19 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
11.9 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.8%Largest probability gapJFK Ventspils winDifference-0.6 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
JFK Ventspils win37%2.702.3837.6%-0.6 pp
Draw25%4.003.6024.8%+0.2 pp
SK Super Nova II win38%2.632.3837.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

JFK Ventspils1.07

Home share of expected goals 48.9%

Total expected goals2.19Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 37% · Under 63%

SK Super Nova II1.12

Away share of expected goals 51.1%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 45% · No 55%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

JFK Ventspils

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

SK Super Nova II

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalAway matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
37%
Win probability excluding draw
38%
5
Points from supplied form
5
1.07
Expected goals
1.12
JFK VentspilsSK Super Nova II
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01JFK Ventspils signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02SK Super Nova II signalAway matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

JFK Ventspils vs SK Super Nova II FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

JFK Ventspils win 37%,Draw 25%,SK Super Nova II win 38%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.19 · Over 2.5 37% · Current selection Under