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INT Portugalia - Liga 3 · Mecz ·

Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gospodarze form
Projected score1–11.73 expected goals
Goście form
Wygrana gospodarzy36%
Remis29%
Wygrana gości35%
Full model forecastWygrana gospodarzyTier A · 36% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callWygrana gospodarzy36% selection probability
Projected score1–1Sporting CovilhaUD Santarem
Expected goals1.73Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Poniżej75% for the selected side
Obie drużyny strzeląNie67% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Powyżej 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketWybórPrawdopodobieństwoUczciwy kurs
36% / 29% / 35%Wynik meczuWygrana gospodarzy36%2.78
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.4%)Podwójna szansa1270.6%1.42
Powyżej 25% · Poniżej 75%Goals 2.5Poniżej75%1.33
Tak 33% · Nie 67%Obie drużyny strzeląNie67%1.49
1.73 total expected goalsDokładny wynik1–1
10.2 expected match cornersRożnePowyżej 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.5%Largest probability gapSporting Covilha winDifference-0.6 pp
OutcomePrognozaUczciwy kursReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Sporting Covilha win36%2.782.4536.6%-0.6 pp
Remis29%3.453.1028.9%+0.1 pp
UD Santarem win35%2.862.6034.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Sporting Covilha0.75

Gospodarze share of expected goals 43.4%

Total expected goals1.73Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Powyżej 25% · Poniżej 75%

UD Santarem0.98

Goście share of expected goals 56.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitTak 33% · Nie 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gospodarze-context · form sequence

Sporting Covilha

1.60pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punkty8

SignalGospodarze unbeaten 4/5

Goście-context · form sequence

UD Santarem

0.80pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins0Drawn4Losses1Punkty4

SignalGoście unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Wygrana probability excluding draw
35%
8
Points from supplied form
4
0.75
Expected goals
0.98
Sporting CovilhaUD Santarem
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Sporting Covilha signalGospodarze unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02UD Santarem signalGoście unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk64% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remis probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Wygrana gospodarzy · Projected score 1–1 · 36% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Sporting Covilha wygrana 36%,Remis 29%,UD Santarem wygrana 35%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.73 · Powyżej 2.5 25% · Current selection Poniżej