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INT Portugal - 3. Liga · Spiel ·

Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–11.73 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg29%
Unentschieden34%
Auswärtssieg37%
Full model forecastAuswärtssiegTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAuswärtssieg37% selection probability
Projected score1–1Sporting CovilhaUD Santarem
Expected goals1.73Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Unter75% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein67% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
29% / 34% / 37%SpielergebnisAuswärtssieg37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Sporting Covilha win (28.7%)Doppelte ChanceX271.3%1.40
Über 25% · Unter 75%Goals 2.5Unter75%1.33
Ja 33% · Nein 67%Beide Teams treffenNein67%1.49
1.73 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–1
10.2 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
Sporting Covilha win29%3.45
Unentschieden34%2.94
UD Santarem win37%2.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Sporting Covilha0.75

Heim share of expected goals 43.4%

Total expected goals1.73Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Über 25% · Unter 75%

UD Santarem0.98

Auswärts share of expected goals 56.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 33% · Nein 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Sporting Covilha

1.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punkte8

SignalHeim unbeaten 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

UD Santarem

0.80pts / match
Gespielt5Wins0Drawn4Losses1Punkte4

SignalAuswärts unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
29%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
37%
8
Points from supplied form
4
0.75
Expected goals
0.98
Sporting CovilhaUD Santarem
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Sporting Covilha signalHeim unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02UD Santarem signalAuswärts unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 34%.

Match questions

Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Auswärtssieg · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Sporting Covilha Gewinn 29%,Unentschieden 34%,UD Santarem Gewinn 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.73 · Über 2.5 25% · Current selection Unter