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INT Portugal - Liga 3 · Match ·

Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–11.73 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger29%
Oavgjort34%
Bortaseger37%
Full model forecastBortasegerTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callBortaseger37% selection probability
Projected score1–1Sporting CovilhaUD Santarem
Expected goals1.73Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under75% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej67% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
29% / 34% / 37%MatchresultatBortaseger37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Sporting Covilha win (28.7%)DubbelchansX271.3%1.40
Över 25% · Under 75%Goals 2.5Under75%1.33
Ja 33% · Nej 67%Båda lagen gör målNej67%1.49
1.73 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
10.2 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Sporting Covilha win29%3.45
Oavgjort34%2.94
UD Santarem win37%2.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Sporting Covilha0.75

Hemma share of expected goals 43.4%

Total expected goals1.73Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Över 25% · Under 75%

UD Santarem0.98

Borta share of expected goals 56.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 33% · Nej 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Sporting Covilha

1.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Poäng8

SignalHemma unbeaten 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

UD Santarem

0.80pts / match
Spelade5Wins0Drawn4Losses1Poäng4

SignalBorta unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
29%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
37%
8
Points from supplied form
4
0.75
Expected goals
0.98
Sporting CovilhaUD Santarem
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Sporting Covilha signalHemma unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02UD Santarem signalBorta unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 34%.

Match questions

Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Bortaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Sporting Covilha vunnen 29%,Oavgjort 34%,UD Santarem vunnen 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.73 · Över 2.5 25% · Current selection Under