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INT Portugalsko - Liga 3 · Zápas ·

Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domácí form
Projected score1–11.73 expected goals
Hosté form
Výhra domácích29%
Remíza34%
Výhra hostů37%
Full model forecastVýhra hostůTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVýhra hostů37% selection probability
Projected score1–1Sporting CovilhaUD Santarem
Expected goals1.73Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Méně75% for the selected side
Oba týmy skórujíNe67% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Více 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketVýběrPravděpodobnostFérový kurz
29% / 34% / 37%Výsledek zápasuVýhra hostů37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Sporting Covilha win (28.7%)Dvojitá šanceX271.3%1.40
Více 25% · Méně 75%Goals 2.5Méně75%1.33
Ano 33% · Ne 67%Oba týmy skórujíNe67%1.49
1.73 total expected goalsPřesné skóre1–1
10.2 expected match cornersRohyVíce 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Ne snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFérový kurz
Sporting Covilha win29%3.45
Remíza34%2.94
UD Santarem win37%2.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Sporting Covilha0.75

Domácí share of expected goals 43.4%

Total expected goals1.73Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Více 25% · Méně 75%

UD Santarem0.98

Hosté share of expected goals 56.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitAno 33% · Ne 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domácí-context · form sequence

Sporting Covilha

1.60pts / match
Odehráno5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Body8

SignalDomácí unbeaten 4/5

Hosté-context · form sequence

UD Santarem

0.80pts / match
Odehráno5Wins0Drawn4Losses1Body4

SignalHosté unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
29%
Výhra probability excluding draw
37%
8
Points from supplied form
4
0.75
Expected goals
0.98
Sporting CovilhaUD Santarem
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Sporting Covilha signalDomácí unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02UD Santarem signalHosté unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remíza probability alone is 34%.

Match questions

Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Výhra hostů · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Sporting Covilha výhra 29%,Remíza 34%,UD Santarem výhra 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.73 · Více 2.5 25% · Current selection Méně