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INT Portugália - Liga 3 · Mérkőzés ·

Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hazai form
Projected score1–11.72 expected goals
Vendég form
Hazai győzelem29%
Döntetlen34%
Vendég győzelem37%
Full model forecastVendég győzelemTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVendég győzelem37% selection probability
Projected score1–1Sporting CovilhaUD Santarem
Expected goals1.72Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Alatt75% for the selected side
Mindkét csapat szerez góltNem67% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Felett 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketVálasztásValószínűségValós odds
29% / 34% / 37%Mérkőzés eredményeVendég győzelem37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Sporting Covilha win (28.8%)Dupla esélyX271.2%1.40
Felett 25% · Alatt 75%Goals 2.5Alatt75%1.33
Igen 33% · Nem 67%Mindkét csapat szerez góltNem67%1.49
1.72 total expected goalsPontos eredmény1–1
10.2 expected match cornersSzögletekFelett 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nem snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityValós odds
Sporting Covilha win29%3.45
Döntetlen34%2.94
UD Santarem win37%2.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Sporting Covilha0.75

Hazai share of expected goals 43.6%

Total expected goals1.72Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Felett 25% · Alatt 75%

UD Santarem0.97

Vendég share of expected goals 56.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitIgen 33% · Nem 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hazai-context · form sequence

Sporting Covilha

1.60pts / match
Lejátszott5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Pontok8

SignalHazai unbeaten 4/5

Vendég-context · form sequence

UD Santarem

0.80pts / match
Lejátszott5Wins0Drawn4Losses1Pontok4

SignalVendég unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
29%
Nyert probability excluding draw
37%
8
Points from supplied form
4
0.75
Expected goals
0.97
Sporting CovilhaUD Santarem
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Sporting Covilha signalHazai unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02UD Santarem signalVendég unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Döntetlen probability alone is 34%.

Match questions

Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vendég győzelem · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Sporting Covilha nyer 29%,Döntetlen 34%,UD Santarem nyer 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.72 · 2.5 felett 25% · Current selection Alatt