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ESP Spanje - La Liga · Wedstrijd ·

Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score4–14.33 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst74%
Gelijkspel16%
Uitwinst10%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 74% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst74% selection probability
Projected score4–1BarcelonaAthletic Bilbao
Expected goals4.33Openen match profile
Goals 2.5Boven81% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa54% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
74% / 16% / 10%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst74%1.35
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Athletic Bilbao win (10.1%)Dubbele Kans1X89.9%1.11
Boven 81% · Onder 19%Goals 2.5Boven81%1.23
Ja 54% · Nee 46%Beide teams scorenJa54%1.85
4.33 total expected goalsExacte score4–1
10.0 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Barcelona win74%1.35
Gelijkspel16%6.25
Athletic Bilbao win10%10.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Barcelona3.52

Thuis share of expected goals 81.3%

Total expected goals4.33Openen

Dedicated goals model: Boven 81% · Onder 19%

Athletic Bilbao0.81

Uit share of expected goals 18.7%

Projected score4–1BTTS splitJa 54% · Nee 46%Match profileOpenen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Barcelona

1.40pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punten7

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Athletic Bilbao

1.40pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punten7

SignalUit matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
74%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
10%
7
Points from supplied form
7
3.52
Expected goals
0.81
BarcelonaAthletic Bilbao
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Barcelona signalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Athletic Bilbao signalUit matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk26% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 16%.

Match questions

Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 4–1 · 74% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Barcelona gewonnen 74%,Gelijkspel 16%,Athletic Bilbao gewonnen 10%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 4.33 · Boven 2.5 81% · Current selection Boven