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ESP Espagne - La Liga · Match ·

Barcelone vs Athletic Bilbao

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score4–14.33 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile74%
Nul16%
Victoire à l’extérieur10%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 74% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile74% selection probability
Projected score4–1BarceloneAthletic Bilbao
Expected goals4.33Ouverture match profile
Goals 2.5Plus de81% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentOui54% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Plus de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
74% / 16% / 10%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile74%1.35
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Athletic Bilbao win (10%)Double chance1X90%1.11
Plus de 81% · Moins de 19%Goals 2.5Plus de81%1.23
Oui 54% · Non 46%Les deux équipes marquentOui54%1.85
4.33 total expected goalsScore exact4–1
10.0 expected match cornersCornersPlus de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Non snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCote juste
Barcelone win74%1.35
Nul16%6.25
Athletic Bilbao win10%10.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Barcelone3.52

Domicile share of expected goals 81.3%

Total expected goals4.33Ouverture

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 81% · Moins de 19%

Athletic Bilbao0.81

Extérieur share of expected goals 18.7%

Projected score4–1BTTS splitOui 54% · Non 46%Match profileOuverture
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Barcelone

1.40pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Athletic Bilbao

1.40pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalExtérieur matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
74%
Gagné probability excluding draw
10%
7
Points from supplied form
7
3.52
Expected goals
0.81
BarceloneAthletic Bilbao
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Barcelone signalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Athletic Bilbao signalExtérieur matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk26% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 16%.

Match questions

Barcelone vs Athletic Bilbao FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 4–1 · 74% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Barcelone victoire 74%,Nul 16%,Athletic Bilbao victoire 10%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 4.33 · Plus de 2.5 81% · Current selection Plus de