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ESP Spanien - La Liga · Kamp ·

Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score4–14.33 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr74%
Uafgjort16%
Udesejr10%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 74% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr74% selection probability
Projected score4–1BarcelonaAthletic Bilbao
Expected goals4.33Åbn match profile
Goals 2.5Over81% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerJa54% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
74% / 16% / 10%KampresultatHjemmesejr74%1.35
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Athletic Bilbao win (10.1%)Dobbeltchance1X89.9%1.11
Over 81% · Under 19%Goals 2.5Over81%1.23
Ja 54% · Nej 46%Begge hold scorerJa54%1.85
4.33 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat4–1
10.0 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Barcelona win74%1.35
Uafgjort16%6.25
Athletic Bilbao win10%10.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Barcelona3.52

Hjemme share of expected goals 81.3%

Total expected goals4.33Åbn

Dedicated goals model: Over 81% · Under 19%

Athletic Bilbao0.81

Ude share of expected goals 18.7%

Projected score4–1BTTS splitJa 54% · Nej 46%Match profileÅbn
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Barcelona

1.40pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Point7

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Athletic Bilbao

1.40pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Point7

SignalUde matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
74%
Vundet probability excluding draw
10%
7
Points from supplied form
7
3.52
Expected goals
0.81
BarcelonaAthletic Bilbao
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Barcelona signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Athletic Bilbao signalUde matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk26% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 16%.

Match questions

Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 4–1 · 74% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Barcelona vundet 74%,Uafgjort 16%,Athletic Bilbao vundet 10%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 4.33 · Over 2.5 81% · Current selection Over