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BGR България - Първа Лига · Мач ·

Ботев Пловдив vs Спартак Варна

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Домакин form
Projected score2–13.06 expected goals
Гост form
Победа за домакина52%
Равен26%
Победа за госта22%
Full model forecastПобеда за домакинаTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда за домакина52% selection probability
Projected score2–1Ботев ПловдивСпартак Варна
Expected goals3.06Откриване match profile
Goals 2.5Над59% for the selected side
И двата отбора да отбележатДа55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Под 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketИзборВероятностСправедлив коефициент
52% / 26% / 22%Резултат от мачаПобеда за домакина52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Спартак Варна win (22%)Двоен шанс1X78%1.28
Над 59% · Под 41%Goals 2.5Над59%1.69
Да 55% · Не 45%И двата отбора да отбележатДа55%1.82
3.06 total expected goalsТочен резултат2–1
9.7 expected match cornersКорнериПод 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Не snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityСправедлив коефициент
Ботев Пловдив win52%1.92
Равен26%3.85
Спартак Варна win22%4.55

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Ботев Пловдив2.06

Домакин share of expected goals 67.3%

Total expected goals3.06Откриване

Dedicated goals model: Над 59% · Под 41%

Спартак Варна1.00

Гост share of expected goals 32.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitДа 55% · Не 45%Match profileОткриване
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Домакин-context · form sequence

Ботев Пловдив

2.00pts / match
Изиграни5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Точки10

SignalДомакин unbeaten 4/5

Гост-context · form sequence

Спартак Варна

1.60pts / match
Изиграни5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Точки8

SignalДомакин matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
52%
Печеливш probability excluding draw
22%
10
Points from supplied form
8
2.06
Expected goals
1.00
Ботев ПловдивСпартак Варна
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Ботев Пловдив signalДомакин unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Спартак Варна signalДомакин matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Равен probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Ботев Пловдив vs Спартак Варна FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа за домакина · Projected score 2–1 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Ботев Пловдив печеливш 52%,Равен 26%,Спартак Варна печеливш 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.06 · Над 2.5 59% · Current selection Над