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BGR Болгария - Первая лига · Матч ·

Ботев Пловдив vs Спартак Варна

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score2–13.02 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев52%
Ничья26%
Победа гостей22%
Full model forecastПобеда хозяевTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда хозяев52% selection probability
Projected score2–1Ботев ПловдивСпартак Варна
Expected goals3.02Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Больше58% for the selected side
Обе забьютДа55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Меньше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
52% / 26% / 22%Исход матчаПобеда хозяев52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Спартак Варна win (22.2%)Двойной шанс1X77.8%1.29
Больше 58% · Меньше 42%Goals 2.5Больше58%1.72
Да 55% · Нет 45%Обе забьютДа55%1.82
3.02 total expected goalsТочный счёт2–1
9.7 expected match cornersУгловыеМеньше 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Нет snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityСправедливый коэффициент
Ботев Пловдив win52%1.92
Ничья26%3.85
Спартак Варна win22%4.55

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Ботев Пловдив2.03

Хозяева share of expected goals 67.2%

Total expected goals3.02Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Больше 58% · Меньше 42%

Спартак Варна0.99

Гости share of expected goals 32.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitДа 55% · Нет 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Ботев Пловдив

1.40pts / match
Сыграно5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Баллы7

SignalХозяева matches over 2.5: 3/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Спартак Варна

2.00pts / match
Сыграно5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Баллы10

SignalХозяева clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
52%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
22%
7
Points from supplied form
10
2.03
Expected goals
0.99
Ботев ПловдивСпартак Варна
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Ботев Пловдив signalХозяева matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Спартак Варна signalХозяева clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Ботев Пловдив vs Спартак Варна FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа хозяев · Projected score 2–1 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Ботев Пловдив выигрыш 52%,Ничья 26%,Спартак Варна выигрыш 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.02 · ТБ 2.5 58% · Current selection Больше