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BGR Болгария - Первая лига · Матч ·

Черно Море Варна vs Лудогорец Разград

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score1–11.96 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев18%
Ничья27%
Победа гостей55%
Full model forecastПобеда гостейTier A · 55% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда гостей55% selection probability
Projected score1–1Черно Море ВарнаЛудогорец Разград
Expected goals1.96Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Меньше69% for the selected side
Обе забьютНет67% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Меньше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
18% / 27% / 55%Исход матчаПобеда гостей55%1.82
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Черно Море Варна win (18.4%)Двойной шансX281.6%1.23
Больше 31% · Меньше 69%Goals 2.5Меньше69%1.45
Да 33% · Нет 67%Обе забьютНет67%1.49
1.96 total expected goalsТочный счёт1–1
8.9 expected match cornersУгловыеМеньше 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.4%Largest probability gapЧерно Море Варна winDifference-0.8 pp
OutcomeПрогнозСправедливый коэффициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Черно Море Варна win18%5.565.0018.8%-0.8 pp
Ничья27%3.703.5026.9%+0.1 pp
Лудогорец Разград win55%1.821.7354.3%+0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Черно Море Варна0.56

Хозяева share of expected goals 28.6%

Total expected goals1.96Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Больше 31% · Меньше 69%

Лудогорец Разград1.40

Гости share of expected goals 71.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitДа 33% · Нет 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Черно Море Варна

0.40pts / match
Сыграно5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Баллы2

SignalХозяева failed to score: 2/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Лудогорец Разград

2.00pts / match
Сыграно5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Баллы10

SignalГости unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
18%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
55%
2
Points from supplied form
10
0.56
Expected goals
1.40
Черно Море ВарнаЛудогорец Разград
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Черно Море Варна signalХозяева failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Лудогорец Разград signalГости unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk45% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Черно Море Варна vs Лудогорец Разград FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа гостей · Projected score 1–1 · 55% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Черно Море Варна выигрыш 18%,Ничья 27%,Лудогорец Разград выигрыш 55%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.96 · ТБ 2.5 31% · Current selection Меньше