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BGR Болгария - Первая лига · Матч ·

Дунав Русе vs Арда Кырджали

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score1–12.33 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев42%
Ничья28%
Победа гостей30%
Baseline forecastПобеда хозяевTier C · 42% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда хозяев42% selection probability
Projected score1–1Дунав РусеАрда Кырджали
Expected goals2.33Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Меньше59% for the selected side
Обе забьютНет53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Меньше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
42% / 28% / 30%Исход матчаПобеда хозяев42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28%)Двойной шанс1272%1.39
Больше 41% · Меньше 59%Goals 2.5Меньше59%1.69
Да 47% · Нет 53%Обе забьютНет53%1.89
2.33 total expected goalsТочный счёт1–1
8.7 expected match cornersУгловыеМеньше 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Нет snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityСправедливый коэффициент
Дунав Русе win42%2.38
Ничья28%3.57
Арда Кырджали win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Дунав Русе1.28

Хозяева share of expected goals 54.9%

Total expected goals2.33Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Больше 41% · Меньше 59%

Арда Кырджали1.05

Гости share of expected goals 45.1%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitДа 47% · Нет 53%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Дунав Русе

0.40pts / match
Сыграно5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Баллы2

SignalХозяева failed to score: 2/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Арда Кырджали

1.00pts / match
Сыграно5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Баллы5

SignalГости matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
42%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
30%
2
Points from supplied form
5
1.28
Expected goals
1.05
Дунав РусеАрда Кырджали
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Дунав Русе signalХозяева failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Арда Кырджали signalГости matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Дунав Русе vs Арда Кырджали FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа хозяев · Projected score 1–1 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Дунав Русе выигрыш 42%,Ничья 28%,Арда Кырджали выигрыш 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.33 · ТБ 2.5 41% · Current selection Меньше