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BGR България - Първа Лига · Мач ·

Дунав Русе vs Арда Кърджали

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Домакин form
Projected score1–12.32 expected goals
Гост form
Победа за домакина42%
Равен28%
Победа за госта30%
Baseline forecastПобеда за домакинаTier C · 42% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда за домакина42% selection probability
Projected score1–1Дунав РусеАрда Кърджали
Expected goals2.32Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Под59% for the selected side
И двата отбора да отбележатНе53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Под 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketИзборВероятностСправедлив коефициент
42% / 28% / 30%Резултат от мачаПобеда за домакина42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28%)Двоен шанс1272%1.39
Над 41% · Под 59%Goals 2.5Под59%1.69
Да 47% · Не 53%И двата отбора да отбележатНе53%1.89
2.32 total expected goalsТочен резултат1–1
8.7 expected match cornersКорнериПод 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Не snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityСправедлив коефициент
Дунав Русе win42%2.38
Равен28%3.57
Арда Кърджали win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Дунав Русе1.27

Домакин share of expected goals 54.7%

Total expected goals2.32Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Над 41% · Под 59%

Арда Кърджали1.05

Гост share of expected goals 45.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitДа 47% · Не 53%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Домакин-context · form sequence

Дунав Русе

0.40pts / match
Изиграни5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Точки2

SignalДомакин failed to score: 2/5

Гост-context · form sequence

Арда Кърджали

1.00pts / match
Изиграни5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Точки5

SignalГост matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
42%
Печеливш probability excluding draw
30%
2
Points from supplied form
5
1.27
Expected goals
1.05
Дунав РусеАрда Кърджали
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Дунав Русе signalДомакин failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Арда Кърджали signalГост matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Равен probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Дунав Русе vs Арда Кърджали FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа за домакина · Projected score 1–1 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Дунав Русе печеливш 42%,Равен 28%,Арда Кърджали печеливш 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.32 · Над 2.5 41% · Current selection Под