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BGR Bulgaria - Parva liga · Partita ·

Dunav Ruse vs Arda Kardzhali

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–12.32 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa42%
Pareggio28%
Vittoria ospite30%
Baseline forecastVittoria casaTier C · 42% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa42% selection probability
Projected score1–1Dunav RuseArda Kardzhali
Expected goals2.32Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto59% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
42% / 28% / 30%Esito partitaVittoria casa42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28%)Doppia Chance1272%1.39
Sopra 41% · Sotto 59%Goals 2.5Sotto59%1.69
Sì 47% · No 53%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo53%1.89
2.32 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–1
8.7 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
Dunav Ruse win42%2.38
Pareggio28%3.57
Arda Kardzhali win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Dunav Ruse1.27

Casa share of expected goals 54.7%

Total expected goals2.32Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 41% · Sotto 59%

Arda Kardzhali1.05

Trasferta share of expected goals 45.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 47% · No 53%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Dunav Ruse

0.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Punti2

SignalCasa failed to score: 2/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Arda Kardzhali

1.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punti5

SignalTrasferta matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
42%
Vinta probability excluding draw
30%
2
Points from supplied form
5
1.27
Expected goals
1.05
Dunav RuseArda Kardzhali
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Dunav Ruse signalCasa failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Arda Kardzhali signalTrasferta matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Dunav Ruse vs Arda Kardzhali FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 1–1 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Dunav Ruse vinta 42%,Pareggio 28%,Arda Kardzhali vinta 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.32 · Sopra 2.5 41% · Current selection Sotto