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BGR Bulgarije - Eerste divisie · Wedstrijd ·

Dunav Ruse vs Arda Kardzhali

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score1–12.33 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst42%
Gelijkspel28%
Uitwinst30%
Baseline forecastThuiswinstTier C · 42% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst42% selection probability
Projected score1–1Dunav RuseArda Kardzhali
Expected goals2.33Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Onder59% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
42% / 28% / 30%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28%)Dubbele Kans1272%1.39
Boven 41% · Onder 59%Goals 2.5Onder59%1.69
Ja 47% · Nee 53%Beide teams scorenNee53%1.89
2.33 total expected goalsExacte score1–1
8.7 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Dunav Ruse win42%2.38
Gelijkspel28%3.57
Arda Kardzhali win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Dunav Ruse1.28

Thuis share of expected goals 54.9%

Total expected goals2.33Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Boven 41% · Onder 59%

Arda Kardzhali1.05

Uit share of expected goals 45.1%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 47% · Nee 53%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Dunav Ruse

0.40pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Punten2

SignalThuis failed to score: 2/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Arda Kardzhali

1.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punten5

SignalUit matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
42%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
30%
2
Points from supplied form
5
1.28
Expected goals
1.05
Dunav RuseArda Kardzhali
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Dunav Ruse signalThuis failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Arda Kardzhali signalUit matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Dunav Ruse vs Arda Kardzhali FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 1–1 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Dunav Ruse gewonnen 42%,Gelijkspel 28%,Arda Kardzhali gewonnen 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.33 · Boven 2.5 41% · Current selection Onder