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BGR България - Първа Лига · Мач ·

Черно Море vs Лудогорец

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Домакин form
Projected score1–11.97 expected goals
Гост form
Победа за домакина18%
Равен27%
Победа за госта55%
Full model forecastПобеда за гостаTier A · 55% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда за госта55% selection probability
Projected score1–1Черно МореЛудогорец
Expected goals1.97Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Под69% for the selected side
И двата отбора да отбележатНе67% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Под 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketИзборВероятностСправедлив коефициент
18% / 27% / 55%Резултат от мачаПобеда за госта55%1.82
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Черно Море win (18.4%)Двоен шансX281.6%1.23
Над 31% · Под 69%Goals 2.5Под69%1.45
Да 33% · Не 67%И двата отбора да отбележатНе67%1.49
1.97 total expected goalsТочен резултат1–1
8.9 expected match cornersКорнериПод 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.4%Largest probability gapЧерно Море winDifference-0.8 pp
OutcomeПрогнозаСправедлив коефициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Черно Море win18%5.565.0018.8%-0.8 pp
Равен27%3.703.5026.9%+0.1 pp
Лудогорец win55%1.821.7354.3%+0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Черно Море0.56

Домакин share of expected goals 28.4%

Total expected goals1.97Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Над 31% · Под 69%

Лудогорец1.41

Гост share of expected goals 71.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitДа 33% · Не 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Домакин-context · form sequence

Черно Море

0.40pts / match
Изиграни5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Точки2

SignalДомакин failed to score: 2/5

Гост-context · form sequence

Лудогорец

2.00pts / match
Изиграни5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Точки10

SignalГост unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
18%
Печеливш probability excluding draw
55%
2
Points from supplied form
10
0.56
Expected goals
1.41
Черно МореЛудогорец
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Черно Море signalДомакин failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Лудогорец signalГост unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk45% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Равен probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Черно Море vs Лудогорец FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа за госта · Projected score 1–1 · 55% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Черно Море печеливш 18%,Равен 27%,Лудогорец печеливш 55%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.97 · Над 2.5 31% · Current selection Под