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BGR Bulgaria First League · Kamp ·

Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–11.96 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier18%
Uavgjort27%
Borteseier55%
Full model forecastBorteseierTier A · 55% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callBorteseier55% selection probability
Projected score1–1Cherno More VarnaLudogorets Razgrad
Expected goals1.96Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under69% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerNei67% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
18% / 27% / 55%KampresultatBorteseier55%1.82
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Cherno More Varna win (18.4%)Dobbel sjanseX281.6%1.23
Over 31% · Under 69%Goals 2.5Under69%1.45
Ja 33% · Nei 67%Begge lag scorerNei67%1.49
1.96 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
8.9 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.4%Largest probability gapCherno More Varna winDifference-0.8 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Cherno More Varna win18%5.565.0018.8%-0.8 pp
Uavgjort27%3.703.5026.9%+0.1 pp
Ludogorets Razgrad win55%1.821.7354.3%+0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cherno More Varna0.56

Hjemme share of expected goals 28.6%

Total expected goals1.96Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 31% · Under 69%

Ludogorets Razgrad1.40

Borte share of expected goals 71.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 33% · Nei 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Cherno More Varna

0.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Poeng2

SignalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Ludogorets Razgrad

2.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poeng10

SignalBorte unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
18%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
55%
2
Points from supplied form
10
0.56
Expected goals
1.40
Cherno More VarnaLudogorets Razgrad
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cherno More Varna signalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ludogorets Razgrad signalBorte unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk45% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Borteseier · Projected score 1–1 · 55% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cherno More Varna vunnet 18%,Uavgjort 27%,Ludogorets Razgrad vunnet 55%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.96 · Over 2.5 31% · Current selection Under