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BGR Bulgaria - Parva liga · Partita ·

Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–11.96 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa18%
Pareggio27%
Vittoria ospite55%
Full model forecastVittoria ospiteTier A · 55% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria ospite55% selection probability
Projected score1–1Cherno More VarnaLudogorets Razgrad
Expected goals1.96Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto69% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo67% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
18% / 27% / 55%Esito partitaVittoria ospite55%1.82
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Cherno More Varna win (18.4%)Doppia ChanceX281.6%1.23
Sopra 31% · Sotto 69%Goals 2.5Sotto69%1.45
Sì 33% · No 67%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo67%1.49
1.96 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–1
8.9 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.4%Largest probability gapCherno More Varna winDifference-0.8 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Cherno More Varna win18%5.565.0018.8%-0.8 pp
Pareggio27%3.703.5026.9%+0.1 pp
Ludogorets Razgrad win55%1.821.7354.3%+0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cherno More Varna0.56

Casa share of expected goals 28.6%

Total expected goals1.96Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 31% · Sotto 69%

Ludogorets Razgrad1.40

Trasferta share of expected goals 71.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 33% · No 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Cherno More Varna

0.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Punti2

SignalCasa failed to score: 2/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Ludogorets Razgrad

2.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punti10

SignalTrasferta unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
18%
Vinta probability excluding draw
55%
2
Points from supplied form
10
0.56
Expected goals
1.40
Cherno More VarnaLudogorets Razgrad
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cherno More Varna signalCasa failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ludogorets Razgrad signalTrasferta unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk45% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria ospite · Projected score 1–1 · 55% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cherno More Varna vinta 18%,Pareggio 27%,Ludogorets Razgrad vinta 55%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.96 · Sopra 2.5 31% · Current selection Sotto