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BGR Bulgaria - Parva liga · Partita ·

Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–22.50 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa16%
Pareggio26%
Vittoria ospite57%
Full model forecastVittoria ospiteTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria ospite57% selection probability
Projected score1–2Septemvri SofiaCSKA Sofia
Expected goals2.50Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto54% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo61% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
16% / 26% / 57%Esito partitaVittoria ospite57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Septemvri Sofia win (16.4%)Doppia ChanceX283.6%1.20
Sopra 46% · Sotto 54%Goals 2.5Sotto54%1.85
Sì 39% · No 61%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo61%1.64
2.50 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–2
8.9 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
Septemvri Sofia win16%6.25
Pareggio26%3.85
CSKA Sofia win57%1.75

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Septemvri Sofia0.61

Casa share of expected goals 24.4%

Total expected goals2.50Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 46% · Sotto 54%

CSKA Sofia1.89

Trasferta share of expected goals 75.6%

Projected score1–2BTTS split 39% · No 61%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Septemvri Sofia

0.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Punti2

SignalCasa failed to score: 2/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

CSKA Sofia

2.20pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punti11

SignalTrasferta unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
16%
Vinta probability excluding draw
57%
2
Points from supplied form
11
0.61
Expected goals
1.89
Septemvri SofiaCSKA Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Septemvri Sofia signalCasa failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02CSKA Sofia signalTrasferta unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria ospite · Projected score 1–2 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Septemvri Sofia vinta 16%,Pareggio 26%,CSKA Sofia vinta 57%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.50 · Sopra 2.5 46% · Current selection Sotto