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BGR Bulgarien - 1. liga · Kamp ·

Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–22.50 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr16%
Uafgjort26%
Udesejr57%
Full model forecastUdesejrTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callUdesejr57% selection probability
Projected score1–2Septemvri SofiaCSKA Sofia
Expected goals2.50Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under54% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej61% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
16% / 26% / 57%KampresultatUdesejr57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Septemvri Sofia win (16.4%)DobbeltchanceX283.6%1.20
Over 46% · Under 54%Goals 2.5Under54%1.85
Ja 39% · Nej 61%Begge hold scorerNej61%1.64
2.50 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–2
8.9 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Septemvri Sofia win16%6.25
Uafgjort26%3.85
CSKA Sofia win57%1.75

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Septemvri Sofia0.61

Hjemme share of expected goals 24.4%

Total expected goals2.50Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 46% · Under 54%

CSKA Sofia1.89

Ude share of expected goals 75.6%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitJa 39% · Nej 61%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Septemvri Sofia

0.40pts / match
Spillet5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Point2

SignalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

Ude-context · form sequence

CSKA Sofia

2.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Point11

SignalUde unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
16%
Vundet probability excluding draw
57%
2
Points from supplied form
11
0.61
Expected goals
1.89
Septemvri SofiaCSKA Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Septemvri Sofia signalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02CSKA Sofia signalUde unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Udesejr · Projected score 1–2 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Septemvri Sofia vundet 16%,Uafgjort 26%,CSKA Sofia vundet 57%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.50 · Over 2.5 46% · Current selection Under