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BGR Bulgaria First League · Maç ·

Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Ev Sahibi form
Projected score1–22.50 expected goals
Deplasman form
Ev sahibi kazanır16%
Beraberlik26%
Deplasman kazanır57%
Full model forecastDeplasman kazanırTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callDeplasman kazanır57% selection probability
Projected score1–2Septemvri SofiaCSKA Sofia
Expected goals2.50Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Alt54% for the selected side
Karşılıklı gol varHayır61% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Alt 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeçimOlasılıkAdil oran
16% / 26% / 57%Maç sonucuDeplasman kazanır57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Septemvri Sofia win (16.4%)Çifte ŞansX283.6%1.20
Üst 46% · Alt 54%Goals 2.5Alt54%1.85
Evet 39% · Hayır 61%Karşılıklı gol varHayır61%1.64
2.50 total expected goalsDoğru skor1–2
8.9 expected match cornersKornerlerAlt 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Hayır snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityAdil oran
Septemvri Sofia win16%6.25
Beraberlik26%3.85
CSKA Sofia win57%1.75

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Septemvri Sofia0.61

Ev Sahibi share of expected goals 24.4%

Total expected goals2.50Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Üst 46% · Alt 54%

CSKA Sofia1.89

Deplasman share of expected goals 75.6%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitEvet 39% · Hayır 61%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Ev Sahibi-context · form sequence

Septemvri Sofia

0.40pts / match
Oynanan5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Puan2

SignalEv Sahibi failed to score: 2/5

Deplasman-context · form sequence

CSKA Sofia

2.20pts / match
Oynanan5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Puan11

SignalDeplasman unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
16%
Kazanç probability excluding draw
57%
2
Points from supplied form
11
0.61
Expected goals
1.89
Septemvri SofiaCSKA Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Septemvri Sofia signalEv Sahibi failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02CSKA Sofia signalDeplasman unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Beraberlik probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Deplasman kazanır · Projected score 1–2 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Septemvri Sofia kazanç 16%,Beraberlik 26%,CSKA Sofia kazanç 57%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.50 · 2.5 Üst 46% · Current selection Alt