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BGR Bulgarie - Parva liga · Match ·

Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score1–11.97 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile18%
Nul27%
Victoire à l’extérieur55%
Full model forecastVictoire à l’extérieurTier A · 55% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à l’extérieur55% selection probability
Projected score1–1Cherno More VarnaLudogorets Razgrad
Expected goals1.97Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de69% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon67% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
18% / 27% / 55%Résultat du matchVictoire à l’extérieur55%1.82
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Cherno More Varna win (18.4%)Double chanceX281.6%1.23
Plus de 31% · Moins de 69%Goals 2.5Moins de69%1.45
Oui 33% · Non 67%Les deux équipes marquentNon67%1.49
1.97 total expected goalsScore exact1–1
8.9 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.4%Largest probability gapCherno More Varna winDifference-0.8 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Cherno More Varna win18%5.565.0018.8%-0.8 pp
Nul27%3.703.5026.9%+0.1 pp
Ludogorets Razgrad win55%1.821.7354.3%+0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cherno More Varna0.56

Domicile share of expected goals 28.4%

Total expected goals1.97Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 31% · Moins de 69%

Ludogorets Razgrad1.41

Extérieur share of expected goals 71.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitOui 33% · Non 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Cherno More Varna

0.40pts / match
Joués5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Points2

SignalDomicile failed to score: 2/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Ludogorets Razgrad

2.00pts / match
Joués5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalExtérieur unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
18%
Gagné probability excluding draw
55%
2
Points from supplied form
10
0.56
Expected goals
1.41
Cherno More VarnaLudogorets Razgrad
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cherno More Varna signalDomicile failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ludogorets Razgrad signalExtérieur unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk45% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à l’extérieur · Projected score 1–1 · 55% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cherno More Varna victoire 18%,Nul 27%,Ludogorets Razgrad victoire 55%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.97 · Plus de 2.5 31% · Current selection Moins de