MatchFormula Find a match
Menu
UTC+8
Time zoneAsia/Shanghai
English
BGR Bulgaria First League · Fixture ·

Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–11.96 expected goals
Away form
Home win18%
Draw27%
Away win55%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 55% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win55% selection probability
Projected score1–1Cherno More VarnaLudogorets Razgrad
Expected goals1.96Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under69% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo67% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
18% / 27% / 55%Match resultAway win55%1.82
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Cherno More Varna win (18.4%)Double chanceX281.6%1.23
Over 31% · Under 69%Goals 2.5Under69%1.45
Yes 33% · No 67%Both teams scoreNo67%1.49
1.96 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
8.9 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.4%Largest probability gapCherno More Varna winDifference-0.8 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Cherno More Varna win18%5.565.0018.8%-0.8 pp
Draw27%3.703.5026.9%+0.1 pp
Ludogorets Razgrad win55%1.821.7354.3%+0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cherno More Varna0.56

Home share of expected goals 28.6%

Total expected goals1.96Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 31% · Under 69%

Ludogorets Razgrad1.40

Away share of expected goals 71.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 33% · No 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Cherno More Varna

0.40pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Points2

SignalHome failed to score: 2/5

Away-context · form sequence

Ludogorets Razgrad

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalAway unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
18%
Win probability excluding draw
55%
2
Points from supplied form
10
0.56
Expected goals
1.40
Cherno More VarnaLudogorets Razgrad
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cherno More Varna signalHome failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ludogorets Razgrad signalAway unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk45% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 55% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cherno More Varna win 18%,Draw 27%,Ludogorets Razgrad win 55%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.96 · Over 2.5 31% · Current selection Under