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BGR Bulgarien - First League · Match ·

Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–13.06 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger52%
Oavgjort26%
Bortaseger22%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger52% selection probability
Projected score2–1Botev PlovdivSpartak Varna
Expected goals3.06Öppna match profile
Goals 2.5Över59% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
52% / 26% / 22%MatchresultatHemmaseger52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Spartak Varna win (22%)Dubbelchans1X78%1.28
Över 59% · Under 41%Goals 2.5Över59%1.69
Ja 55% · Nej 45%Båda lagen gör målJa55%1.82
3.06 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.7 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Botev Plovdiv win52%1.92
Oavgjort26%3.85
Spartak Varna win22%4.55

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Botev Plovdiv2.06

Hemma share of expected goals 67.3%

Total expected goals3.06Öppna

Dedicated goals model: Över 59% · Under 41%

Spartak Varna1.00

Borta share of expected goals 32.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 55% · Nej 45%Match profileÖppna
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Botev Plovdiv

2.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poäng10

SignalHemma unbeaten 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Spartak Varna

1.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Poäng8

SignalHemma matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
52%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
22%
10
Points from supplied form
8
2.06
Expected goals
1.00
Botev PlovdivSpartak Varna
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Botev Plovdiv signalHemma unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Spartak Varna signalHemma matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Botev Plovdiv vunnen 52%,Oavgjort 26%,Spartak Varna vunnen 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.06 · Över 2.5 59% · Current selection Över