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BGR Bulgarien - 1. Liga · Spiel ·

Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–13.06 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg53%
Unentschieden25%
Auswärtssieg22%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 53% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg53% selection probability
Projected score2–1Botev PlovdivSpartak Varna
Expected goals3.06Eröffnung match profile
Goals 2.5Über59% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
53% / 25% / 22%SpielergebnisHeimsieg53%1.89
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Spartak Varna win (22%)Doppelte Chance1X78%1.28
Über 59% · Unter 41%Goals 2.5Über59%1.69
Ja 55% · Nein 45%Beide Teams treffenJa55%1.82
3.06 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
9.7 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
Botev Plovdiv win53%1.89
Unentschieden25%4.00
Spartak Varna win22%4.55

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Botev Plovdiv2.06

Heim share of expected goals 67.3%

Total expected goals3.06Eröffnung

Dedicated goals model: Über 59% · Unter 41%

Spartak Varna1.00

Auswärts share of expected goals 32.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 55% · Nein 45%Match profileEröffnung
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Botev Plovdiv

2.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punkte10

SignalHeim unbeaten 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Spartak Varna

1.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punkte8

SignalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
53%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
22%
10
Points from supplied form
8
2.06
Expected goals
1.00
Botev PlovdivSpartak Varna
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Botev Plovdiv signalHeim unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Spartak Varna signalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk47% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 53% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Botev Plovdiv Gewinn 53%,Unentschieden 25%,Spartak Varna Gewinn 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.06 · Über 2.5 59% · Current selection Über