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BGR Bulgarije - Eerste divisie · Wedstrijd ·

Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–13.06 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst52%
Gelijkspel26%
Uitwinst22%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst52% selection probability
Projected score2–1Botev PlovdivSpartak Varna
Expected goals3.06Openen match profile
Goals 2.5Boven59% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
52% / 26% / 22%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Spartak Varna win (22%)Dubbele Kans1X78%1.28
Boven 59% · Onder 41%Goals 2.5Boven59%1.69
Ja 55% · Nee 45%Beide teams scorenJa55%1.82
3.06 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
9.7 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Botev Plovdiv win52%1.92
Gelijkspel26%3.85
Spartak Varna win22%4.55

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Botev Plovdiv2.06

Thuis share of expected goals 67.3%

Total expected goals3.06Openen

Dedicated goals model: Boven 59% · Onder 41%

Spartak Varna1.00

Uit share of expected goals 32.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 55% · Nee 45%Match profileOpenen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Botev Plovdiv

2.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punten10

SignalThuis unbeaten 4/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Spartak Varna

1.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punten8

SignalThuis matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
52%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
22%
10
Points from supplied form
8
2.06
Expected goals
1.00
Botev PlovdivSpartak Varna
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Botev Plovdiv signalThuis unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Spartak Varna signalThuis matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Botev Plovdiv gewonnen 52%,Gelijkspel 26%,Spartak Varna gewonnen 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.06 · Boven 2.5 59% · Current selection Boven