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BGR Bulgaria - Primera Liga · Partido ·

Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score2–13.03 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local52%
Empate26%
Victoria visitante22%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local52% selection probability
Projected score2–1Botev PlovdivSpartak Varna
Expected goals3.03Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Más de58% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcan55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
52% / 26% / 22%Resultado del partidoVictoria local52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Spartak Varna win (22.1%)Doble Oportunidad1X77.9%1.28
Más de 58% · Menos de 42%Goals 2.5Más de58%1.72
Sí 55% · No 45%Ambos equipos marcan55%1.82
3.03 total expected goalsMarcador exacto2–1
9.7 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCuotas justas
Botev Plovdiv win52%1.92
Empate26%3.85
Spartak Varna win22%4.55

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Botev Plovdiv2.04

Local share of expected goals 67.3%

Total expected goals3.03Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Más de 58% · Menos de 42%

Spartak Varna0.99

Visitante share of expected goals 32.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 55% · No 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Botev Plovdiv

1.40pts / match
Jugados5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Puntos7

SignalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Spartak Varna

2.00pts / match
Jugados5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Puntos10

SignalLocal clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
52%
Ganado probability excluding draw
22%
7
Points from supplied form
10
2.04
Expected goals
0.99
Botev PlovdivSpartak Varna
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Botev Plovdiv signalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Spartak Varna signalLocal clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 2–1 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Botev Plovdiv ganada 52%,Empate 26%,Spartak Varna ganada 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.03 · Más de 2.5 58% · Current selection Más de