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BGR Bułgaria - 1. Liga · Mecz ·

Botew Płowdiw vs Spartak Varna

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gospodarze form
Projected score2–13.06 expected goals
Goście form
Wygrana gospodarzy52%
Remis26%
Wygrana gości22%
Full model forecastWygrana gospodarzyTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callWygrana gospodarzy52% selection probability
Projected score2–1Botew PłowdiwSpartak Varna
Expected goals3.06Otwarcie match profile
Goals 2.5Powyżej59% for the selected side
Obie drużyny strzeląTak55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Poniżej 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketWybórPrawdopodobieństwoUczciwy kurs
52% / 26% / 22%Wynik meczuWygrana gospodarzy52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Spartak Varna win (22%)Podwójna szansa1X78%1.28
Powyżej 59% · Poniżej 41%Goals 2.5Powyżej59%1.69
Tak 55% · Nie 45%Obie drużyny strzeląTak55%1.82
3.06 total expected goalsDokładny wynik2–1
9.7 expected match cornersRożnePoniżej 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nie snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityUczciwy kurs
Botew Płowdiw win52%1.92
Remis26%3.85
Spartak Varna win22%4.55

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Botew Płowdiw2.06

Gospodarze share of expected goals 67.3%

Total expected goals3.06Otwarcie

Dedicated goals model: Powyżej 59% · Poniżej 41%

Spartak Varna1.00

Goście share of expected goals 32.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitTak 55% · Nie 45%Match profileOtwarcie
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gospodarze-context · form sequence

Botew Płowdiw

2.00pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punkty10

SignalGospodarze unbeaten 4/5

Goście-context · form sequence

Spartak Varna

1.60pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punkty8

SignalGospodarze matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
52%
Wygrana probability excluding draw
22%
10
Points from supplied form
8
2.06
Expected goals
1.00
Botew PłowdiwSpartak Varna
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Botew Płowdiw signalGospodarze unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Spartak Varna signalGospodarze matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remis probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Botew Płowdiw vs Spartak Varna FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Wygrana gospodarzy · Projected score 2–1 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Botew Płowdiw wygrana 52%,Remis 26%,Spartak Varna wygrana 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.06 · Powyżej 2.5 59% · Current selection Powyżej