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BGR Bulgarien - First League · Match ·

Botev Vratsa vs Slavia Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–11.79 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger39%
Oavgjort34%
Bortaseger28%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger39% selection probability
Projected score1–1Botev VratsaSlavia Sofia
Expected goals1.79Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under73% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej65% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
39% / 34% / 28%MatchresultatHemmaseger39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Slavia Sofia win (27.5%)Dubbelchans1X72.5%1.38
Över 27% · Under 73%Goals 2.5Under73%1.37
Ja 35% · Nej 65%Båda lagen gör målNej65%1.54
1.79 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.8 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Botev Vratsa win39%2.56
Oavgjort34%2.94
Slavia Sofia win28%3.57

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Botev Vratsa1.05

Hemma share of expected goals 58.7%

Total expected goals1.79Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Över 27% · Under 73%

Slavia Sofia0.74

Borta share of expected goals 41.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 35% · Nej 65%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Botev Vratsa

1.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Poäng5

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Slavia Sofia

1.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Poäng8

SignalHemma unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
39%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
28%
5
Points from supplied form
8
1.05
Expected goals
0.74
Botev VratsaSlavia Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Botev Vratsa signalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Slavia Sofia signalHemma unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 34%.

Match questions

Botev Vratsa vs Slavia Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Botev Vratsa vunnen 39%,Oavgjort 34%,Slavia Sofia vunnen 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.79 · Över 2.5 27% · Current selection Under