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BGR Bulgaria First League · Fixture ·

Botev Vratsa vs Slavia Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–11.78 expected goals
Away form
Home win39%
Draw33%
Away win28%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win39% selection probability
Projected score1–1Botev VratsaSlavia Sofia
Expected goals1.78Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under74% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo66% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
39% / 33% / 28%Match resultHome win39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Slavia Sofia win (27.8%)Double chance1X72.2%1.39
Over 26% · Under 74%Goals 2.5Under74%1.35
Yes 34% · No 66%Both teams scoreNo66%1.52
1.78 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.8 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Botev Vratsa win39%2.56
Draw33%3.03
Slavia Sofia win28%3.57

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Botev Vratsa1.04

Home share of expected goals 58.4%

Total expected goals1.78Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 26% · Under 74%

Slavia Sofia0.74

Away share of expected goals 41.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 34% · No 66%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Botev Vratsa

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Slavia Sofia

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalAway matches under 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
39%
Win probability excluding draw
28%
7
Points from supplied form
5
1.04
Expected goals
0.74
Botev VratsaSlavia Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Botev Vratsa signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Slavia Sofia signalAway matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 33%.

Match questions

Botev Vratsa vs Slavia Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Botev Vratsa win 39%,Draw 33%,Slavia Sofia win 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.78 · Over 2.5 26% · Current selection Under