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BGR Bulgaria - Parva liga · Partita ·

Botev Vratsa vs Slavia Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–11.79 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa39%
Pareggio34%
Vittoria ospite28%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa39% selection probability
Projected score1–1Botev VratsaSlavia Sofia
Expected goals1.79Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto73% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo65% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Sopra 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
39% / 34% / 28%Esito partitaVittoria casa39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Slavia Sofia win (27.5%)Doppia Chance1X72.5%1.38
Sopra 27% · Sotto 73%Goals 2.5Sotto73%1.37
Sì 35% · No 65%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo65%1.54
1.79 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–1
9.8 expected match cornersCornerSopra 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
Botev Vratsa win39%2.56
Pareggio34%2.94
Slavia Sofia win28%3.57

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Botev Vratsa1.05

Casa share of expected goals 58.7%

Total expected goals1.79Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 27% · Sotto 73%

Slavia Sofia0.74

Trasferta share of expected goals 41.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 35% · No 65%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Botev Vratsa

1.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punti5

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Slavia Sofia

1.60pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punti8

SignalCasa unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
39%
Vinta probability excluding draw
28%
5
Points from supplied form
8
1.05
Expected goals
0.74
Botev VratsaSlavia Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Botev Vratsa signalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Slavia Sofia signalCasa unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 34%.

Match questions

Botev Vratsa vs Slavia Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 1–1 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Botev Vratsa vinta 39%,Pareggio 34%,Slavia Sofia vinta 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.79 · Sopra 2.5 27% · Current selection Sotto