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PRT Portugal - Primeira Liga · Round 1 ·

Estrela Amadora vs Sporting

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–33.43 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger13%
Oavgjort20%
Bortaseger67%
Full model forecastBortasegerTier A · 67% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callBortaseger67% selection probability
Projected score1–3Estrela AmadoraSporting
Expected goals3.43Öppna match profile
Goals 2.5Över67% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
13% / 20% / 67%MatchresultatBortaseger67%1.49
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Estrela Amadora win (13.1%)DubbelchansX286.9%1.15
Över 67% · Under 33%Goals 2.5Över67%1.49
Ja 48% · Nej 52%Båda lagen gör målNej52%1.92
3.43 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–3
9.8 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Estrela Amadora win13%7.69
Oavgjort20%5.00
Sporting win67%1.49

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Estrela Amadora0.72

Hemma share of expected goals 21%

Total expected goals3.43Öppna

Dedicated goals model: Över 67% · Under 33%

Sporting2.71

Borta share of expected goals 79%

Projected score1–3BTTS splitJa 48% · Nej 52%Match profileÖppna
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Estrela Amadora

1.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Poäng5

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Sporting

3.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Poäng15

SignalBorta unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
13%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
67%
5
Points from supplied form
15
0.72
Expected goals
2.71
Estrela AmadoraSporting
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Estrela Amadora signalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sporting signalBorta unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk33% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

Estrela Amadora vs Sporting FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Bortaseger · Projected score 1–3 · 67% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Estrela Amadora vunnen 13%,Oavgjort 20%,Sporting vunnen 67%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.43 · Över 2.5 67% · Current selection Över