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PRT Portugal - Primeira Liga · Round 1 ·

Estrela da Amadora vs Sporting

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Mandante form
Projected score1–33.43 expected goals
Visitante form
Vitória da casa8%
Empate16%
Vitória visitante76%
Full model forecastVitória visitanteTier A · 76% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVitória visitante76% selection probability
Projected score1–3Estrela da AmadoraSporting
Expected goals3.43Abrir match profile
Goals 2.5Acima67% for the selected side
Ambas as equipes marcamNão52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Acima 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeleçãoProbabilidadeOdds justas
8% / 16% / 76%Resultado da partidaVitória visitante76%1.32
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Estrela da Amadora win (7.8%)Dupla ChanceX292.2%1.08
Acima 67% · Abaixo 33%Goals 2.5Acima67%1.49
Sim 48% · Não 52%Ambas as equipes marcamNão52%1.92
3.43 total expected goalsPlacar exato1–3
9.8 expected match cornersEscanteiosAcima 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.7%Largest probability gapDrawDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePrevisãoOdds justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Estrela da Amadora win8%12.5012.007.9%+0.1 pp
Empate16%6.255.7516.4%-0.4 pp
Sporting win76%1.321.2575.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Estrela da Amadora0.72

Mandante share of expected goals 21%

Total expected goals3.43Abrir

Dedicated goals model: Acima 67% · Abaixo 33%

Sporting2.71

Visitante share of expected goals 79%

Projected score1–3BTTS splitSim 48% · Não 52%Match profileAbrir
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Mandante-context · form sequence

Estrela da Amadora

1.00pts / match
Jogos5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Pontos5

SignalMandante matches over 2.5: 4/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Sporting

3.00pts / match
Jogos5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Pontos15

SignalVisitante unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
8%
Ganhou probability excluding draw
76%
5
Points from supplied form
15
0.72
Expected goals
2.71
Estrela da AmadoraSporting
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Estrela da Amadora signalMandante matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sporting signalVisitante unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk24% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 16%.

Match questions

Estrela da Amadora vs Sporting FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vitória visitante · Projected score 1–3 · 76% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Estrela da Amadora ganhou 8%,Empate 16%,Sporting ganhou 76%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.43 · Acima 2.5 67% · Current selection Acima