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PRT Portogallo - Primeira Liga · Round 1 ·

Estrela Amadora vs Sporting

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–33.42 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa8%
Pareggio16%
Vittoria ospite76%
Full model forecastVittoria ospiteTier A · 76% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria ospite76% selection probability
Projected score1–3Estrela AmadoraSporting
Expected goals3.42Apertura match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra66% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Sopra 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
8% / 16% / 76%Esito partitaVittoria ospite76%1.32
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Estrela Amadora win (7.8%)Doppia ChanceX292.2%1.08
Sopra 66% · Sotto 34%Goals 2.5Sopra66%1.52
Sì 48% · No 52%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo52%1.92
3.42 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–3
9.8 expected match cornersCornerSopra 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.7%Largest probability gapDrawDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Estrela Amadora win8%12.5012.007.9%+0.1 pp
Pareggio16%6.255.7516.4%-0.4 pp
Sporting win76%1.321.2575.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Estrela Amadora0.72

Casa share of expected goals 21.1%

Total expected goals3.42Apertura

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 66% · Sotto 34%

Sporting2.70

Trasferta share of expected goals 78.9%

Projected score1–3BTTS split 48% · No 52%Match profileApertura
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Estrela Amadora

1.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punti5

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 4/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Sporting

3.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Punti15

SignalTrasferta unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
8%
Vinta probability excluding draw
76%
5
Points from supplied form
15
0.72
Expected goals
2.70
Estrela AmadoraSporting
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Estrela Amadora signalCasa matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sporting signalTrasferta unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk24% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 16%.

Match questions

Estrela Amadora vs Sporting FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria ospite · Projected score 1–3 · 76% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Estrela Amadora vinta 8%,Pareggio 16%,Sporting vinta 76%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.42 · Sopra 2.5 66% · Current selection Sopra