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PRT Portugal - Primeira Liga · Round 1 ·

Estrela Amadora vs Sporting

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–33.42 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg8%
Unentschieden16%
Auswärtssieg76%
Full model forecastAuswärtssiegTier A · 76% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAuswärtssieg76% selection probability
Projected score1–3Estrela AmadoraSporting
Expected goals3.42Eröffnung match profile
Goals 2.5Über66% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
8% / 16% / 76%SpielergebnisAuswärtssieg76%1.32
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Estrela Amadora win (7.8%)Doppelte ChanceX292.2%1.08
Über 66% · Unter 34%Goals 2.5Über66%1.52
Ja 48% · Nein 52%Beide Teams treffenNein52%1.92
3.42 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–3
9.8 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.7%Largest probability gapDrawDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Estrela Amadora win8%12.5012.007.9%+0.1 pp
Unentschieden16%6.255.7516.4%-0.4 pp
Sporting win76%1.321.2575.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Estrela Amadora0.72

Heim share of expected goals 21.1%

Total expected goals3.42Eröffnung

Dedicated goals model: Über 66% · Unter 34%

Sporting2.70

Auswärts share of expected goals 78.9%

Projected score1–3BTTS splitJa 48% · Nein 52%Match profileEröffnung
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Estrela Amadora

1.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punkte5

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Sporting

3.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Punkte15

SignalAuswärts unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
8%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
76%
5
Points from supplied form
15
0.72
Expected goals
2.70
Estrela AmadoraSporting
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Estrela Amadora signalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sporting signalAuswärts unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk24% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 16%.

Match questions

Estrela Amadora vs Sporting FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Auswärtssieg · Projected score 1–3 · 76% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Estrela Amadora Gewinn 8%,Unentschieden 16%,Sporting Gewinn 76%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.42 · Über 2.5 66% · Current selection Über