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PRT Portugal - Primeira Liga · Match ·

Guimaraes vs FC Arouca

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–13.20 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger49%
Oavgjort27%
Bortaseger24%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 49% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger49% selection probability
Projected score2–1GuimaraesFC Arouca
Expected goals3.20Öppna match profile
Goals 2.5Över62% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa63% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
49% / 27% / 24%MatchresultatHemmaseger49%2.04
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FC Arouca win (23.9%)Dubbelchans1X76.1%1.31
Över 62% · Under 38%Goals 2.5Över62%1.61
Ja 63% · Nej 37%Båda lagen gör målJa63%1.59
3.20 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
8.7 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.0%Largest probability gapFC Arouca winDifference+0.6 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Guimaraes win49%2.041.9049.2%-0.2 pp
Oavgjort27%3.703.4027.5%-0.5 pp
FC Arouca win24%4.174.0023.4%+0.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Guimaraes1.77

Hemma share of expected goals 55.3%

Total expected goals3.20Öppna

Dedicated goals model: Över 62% · Under 38%

FC Arouca1.43

Borta share of expected goals 44.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 63% · Nej 37%Match profileÖppna
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Guimaraes

0.80pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Poäng4

SignalHemma matches under 2.5: 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

FC Arouca

2.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poäng10

SignalHemma failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
49%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
24%
4
Points from supplied form
10
1.77
Expected goals
1.43
GuimaraesFC Arouca
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Guimaraes signalHemma matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FC Arouca signalHemma failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk51% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Guimaraes vs FC Arouca FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 49% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Guimaraes vunnen 49%,Oavgjort 27%,FC Arouca vunnen 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.20 · Över 2.5 62% · Current selection Över