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PRT Portugália - Primeira Liga · Mérkőzés ·

Guimaraes vs FC Arouca

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hazai form
Projected score2–13.20 expected goals
Vendég form
Hazai győzelem49%
Döntetlen27%
Vendég győzelem24%
Full model forecastHazai győzelemTier A · 49% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHazai győzelem49% selection probability
Projected score2–1GuimaraesFC Arouca
Expected goals3.20Nyitó match profile
Goals 2.5Felett62% for the selected side
Mindkét csapat szerez góltIgen63% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Alatt 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketVálasztásValószínűségValós odds
49% / 27% / 24%Mérkőzés eredményeHazai győzelem49%2.04
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FC Arouca win (23.9%)Dupla esély1X76.1%1.31
Felett 62% · Alatt 38%Goals 2.5Felett62%1.61
Igen 63% · Nem 37%Mindkét csapat szerez góltIgen63%1.59
3.20 total expected goalsPontos eredmény2–1
8.7 expected match cornersSzögletekAlatt 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.0%Largest probability gapFC Arouca winDifference+0.6 pp
OutcomeElőrejelzésValós oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Guimaraes win49%2.041.9049.2%-0.2 pp
Döntetlen27%3.703.4027.5%-0.5 pp
FC Arouca win24%4.174.0023.4%+0.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Guimaraes1.77

Hazai share of expected goals 55.3%

Total expected goals3.20Nyitó

Dedicated goals model: Felett 62% · Alatt 38%

FC Arouca1.43

Vendég share of expected goals 44.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitIgen 63% · Nem 37%Match profileNyitó
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hazai-context · form sequence

Guimaraes

0.80pts / match
Lejátszott5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Pontok4

SignalHazai matches under 2.5: 4/5

Vendég-context · form sequence

FC Arouca

2.00pts / match
Lejátszott5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Pontok10

SignalHazai failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
49%
Nyert probability excluding draw
24%
4
Points from supplied form
10
1.77
Expected goals
1.43
GuimaraesFC Arouca
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Guimaraes signalHazai matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FC Arouca signalHazai failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk51% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Döntetlen probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Guimaraes vs FC Arouca FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hazai győzelem · Projected score 2–1 · 49% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Guimaraes nyer 49%,Döntetlen 27%,FC Arouca nyer 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.20 · 2.5 felett 62% · Current selection Felett