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PRT Portugalia - Primeira Liga · Mecz ·

Guimaraes vs FC Arouca

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gospodarze form
Projected score2–13.20 expected goals
Goście form
Wygrana gospodarzy49%
Remis27%
Wygrana gości24%
Full model forecastWygrana gospodarzyTier A · 49% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callWygrana gospodarzy49% selection probability
Projected score2–1GuimaraesFC Arouca
Expected goals3.20Otwarcie match profile
Goals 2.5Powyżej62% for the selected side
Obie drużyny strzeląTak63% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Poniżej 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketWybórPrawdopodobieństwoUczciwy kurs
49% / 27% / 24%Wynik meczuWygrana gospodarzy49%2.04
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FC Arouca win (23.9%)Podwójna szansa1X76.1%1.31
Powyżej 62% · Poniżej 38%Goals 2.5Powyżej62%1.61
Tak 63% · Nie 37%Obie drużyny strzeląTak63%1.59
3.20 total expected goalsDokładny wynik2–1
8.7 expected match cornersRożnePoniżej 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.0%Largest probability gapFC Arouca winDifference+0.6 pp
OutcomePrognozaUczciwy kursReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Guimaraes win49%2.041.9049.2%-0.2 pp
Remis27%3.703.4027.5%-0.5 pp
FC Arouca win24%4.174.0023.4%+0.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Guimaraes1.77

Gospodarze share of expected goals 55.3%

Total expected goals3.20Otwarcie

Dedicated goals model: Powyżej 62% · Poniżej 38%

FC Arouca1.43

Goście share of expected goals 44.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitTak 63% · Nie 37%Match profileOtwarcie
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gospodarze-context · form sequence

Guimaraes

0.80pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punkty4

SignalGospodarze matches under 2.5: 4/5

Goście-context · form sequence

FC Arouca

2.00pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punkty10

SignalGospodarze failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
49%
Wygrana probability excluding draw
24%
4
Points from supplied form
10
1.77
Expected goals
1.43
GuimaraesFC Arouca
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Guimaraes signalGospodarze matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FC Arouca signalGospodarze failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk51% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remis probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Guimaraes vs FC Arouca FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Wygrana gospodarzy · Projected score 2–1 · 49% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Guimaraes wygrana 49%,Remis 27%,FC Arouca wygrana 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.20 · Powyżej 2.5 62% · Current selection Powyżej