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PRT Portugal - Primeira Liga · Partido ·

Vitória de Guimarães vs FC Arouca

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score2–13.20 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local49%
Empate27%
Victoria visitante24%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 49% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local49% selection probability
Projected score2–1Vitória de GuimarãesFC Arouca
Expected goals3.20Abrir match profile
Goals 2.5Más de62% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcan63% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
49% / 27% / 24%Resultado del partidoVictoria local49%2.04
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FC Arouca win (23.9%)Doble Oportunidad1X76.1%1.31
Más de 62% · Menos de 38%Goals 2.5Más de62%1.61
Sí 63% · No 37%Ambos equipos marcan63%1.59
3.20 total expected goalsMarcador exacto2–1
8.7 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.0%Largest probability gapFC Arouca winDifference+0.6 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Vitória de Guimarães win49%2.041.9049.2%-0.2 pp
Empate27%3.703.4027.5%-0.5 pp
FC Arouca win24%4.174.0023.4%+0.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Vitória de Guimarães1.77

Local share of expected goals 55.3%

Total expected goals3.20Abrir

Dedicated goals model: Más de 62% · Menos de 38%

FC Arouca1.43

Visitante share of expected goals 44.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 63% · No 37%Match profileAbrir
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Vitória de Guimarães

0.80pts / match
Jugados5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Puntos4

SignalLocal matches under 2.5: 4/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

FC Arouca

2.00pts / match
Jugados5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Puntos10

SignalLocal failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
49%
Ganado probability excluding draw
24%
4
Points from supplied form
10
1.77
Expected goals
1.43
Vitória de GuimarãesFC Arouca
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Vitória de Guimarães signalLocal matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FC Arouca signalLocal failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk51% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Vitória de Guimarães vs FC Arouca FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 2–1 · 49% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Vitória de Guimarães ganada 49%,Empate 27%,FC Arouca ganada 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.20 · Más de 2.5 62% · Current selection Más de