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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Round 3 ·

Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Club Atletico La Paz

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–12.61 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst45%
Gelijkspel26%
Uitwinst29%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst45% selection probability
Projected score2–1Tepatitlan de MorelosClub Atletico La Paz
Expected goals2.61Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Onder52% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
45% / 26% / 29%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26%)Dubbele Kans1274%1.35
Boven 48% · Onder 52%Goals 2.5Onder52%1.92
Ja 48% · Nee 52%Beide teams scorenNee52%1.92
2.61 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
10.1 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.5%Largest probability gapTepatitlan de Morelos winDifference+1.3 pp
OutcomeVoorspellingEerlijke oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Tepatitlan de Morelos win45%2.222.1543.7%+1.3 pp
Gelijkspel26%3.853.6026.1%-0.1 pp
Club Atletico La Paz win29%3.453.1030.3%-1.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Tepatitlan de Morelos1.74

Thuis share of expected goals 66.7%

Total expected goals2.61Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 48% · Onder 52%

Club Atletico La Paz0.87

Uit share of expected goals 33.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 48% · Nee 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Tepatitlan de Morelos

1.20pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punten6

SignalThuis failed to score: 2/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Club Atletico La Paz

0.20pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Punten1

SignalThuis won 2/3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
29%
6
Points from supplied form
1
1.74
Expected goals
0.87
Tepatitlan de MorelosClub Atletico La Paz
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Tepatitlan de Morelos signalThuis failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Club Atletico La Paz signalThuis won 2/3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Club Atletico La Paz FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Tepatitlan de Morelos gewonnen 45%,Gelijkspel 26%,Club Atletico La Paz gewonnen 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.61 · Boven 2.5 48% · Current selection Onder